Canada's Olympic Scoring Woes

The Olympic hockey tournament is finally under way and once again Canada enters the games with the most heralded assembly of stars. But there is a significant difference in this year's competition from tournaments past. For the first time the Olympics will be played on an NHL sized ice surface, something that I think removes a significant disadvantage for the Canadian team.

The three Olympic hockey competitions since the NHL started sending NHLers in Nagano paint an interesting picture regarding the performance of Team Canada on the larger ice surface, particularly against the elite European countries, those being Russia, Finland, Sweden and the Czech Republic.

I'm not all that big on numbers but looking at it statistically the Canadian Olympic hockey record has been anything but dominant, posting a 3 win, 5 loss record against the aforementioned European opposition with 1 tie.

More telling though is that, with the likes of Gretzky, Lemieux, Sakic, Yzerman in the lineup, Team Canada is averaging an anaemic 1.77 goals over those 9 games and has yet to score more than 3 goals in a single game; hard to believe with that amount of hockey talent assembled on one team.

Over those same 9 games they’ve given up an average of 2.5 goals per game. And these stats don’t even include lacklustre Olympic performances against lesser European teams such as the 2-0 loss to Switzerland in 2006 and the narrow 3-2 escape against Germany in 2002.

Compare those numbers with those of the last two World Cup of Hockey competitions (played on North American sized ice surface) and you see a whole different story. Over those tournaments Team Canada had 5 wins and no losses against the same elite European competition, scoring a more respectable 3.5 goals for per game.

Are these numbers just a coincidence, the result of less motivated European teams in World Cup play or possibly the result of a small sample size? Perhaps all of the above. The Olympic hockey competition has been low scoring in general, but if you analyze Team Canada’s performance subjectively over the last 3 Olympiads you can’t help but conclude that none of these Canadian teams really met the offensive expectations that existed on paper, including the fabled gold medal team from the Salt Lake City Games of 2002.

That team was spanked by Sweden 5 to 2 in its tournament opener, managed a 3-3 tie with the Czech republic to end the preliminary round and eked out a narrow 2 to 1 win against Finland in the quarterfinals. Thankfully for Canada they did not have to face the Czech Republic, Finland or Russia on their way to the gold medal or the results may well have been quite different.

How teams with the wealth of talent like the past three Canadian Olympic squads can produce such modest offensive numbers is mind boggling. I think a major part of the problem is the Canadian style and how it translates to the larger ice surface.

The straight line, take it wide or dump it into the corner offensive style does not seem as effective against elite European competition on large ice. It seems more difficult to sustain pressure down low and to maintain a physical presence with so much room to cover below the goal line. And the idea of taking it wide plays right into the hand of the European defenders who are content to keep the play outside the circles.

Not by any means am I suggesting that Canada is incapable of winning on the big ice. World Juniors and World Championship success suggest otherwise. But against the world's best I think the evidence is there that the switch to NHL ice is a significant one.

Will the smaller ice surface make a difference in Vancouver? Time will tell. My guess is yes. I think it will be the catalyst in allowing Canada to play their physical and grinding down low style that will eventually result in more scoring chances and hopefully more victories.

I'm not saying that small ice will guarantee a victory for Canada, the competition is just too evenly matched to jump to that conclusion. But I think it will eliminate one major disadvantage and might be just the thing to put Canada over the top this time around.